Add blocked operational-value study for copilot-pr-merged-report

[Copilot]

Per .github/skills/operational-value-designer/SKILL.md, this PR runs a fresh operational-value design study for the copilot-pr-merged-report workflow and records the result — no grader is wired up because none is defensible.

Findings

• Recovered adoption-time intent from PR [WIP] Add daily report generation for copilot pull requests #5569 (commit 0d53b1fcfa831bbe0da078b9729b33bbb3221064): the workflow only reads already-merged Copilot PR data and publishes a summary discussion.
• The workflow never creates, resolves, or owns a repository opportunity — by the time it runs, the PRs it reports on are already merged and closed.
• Every candidate signal (report published, PR/line/test counts, report accuracy vs. re-derived data, discussion engagement) reduces to activity, output volume, or agent-judgment — all explicitly excluded as substitutes for direct attainment.

Changes

• Added .github/graders/copilot-pr-merged-report-operational-value-study.json with designOutcome: "blocked", including:
  • a detailed rejectionReason explaining why no direct primary metric in [0,1] can be constructed
  • classification of the workflow's domain/task/evidence characteristics
  • decisions covering intent, opportunity, evidence, and metric considerations with rejected alternatives and rationale
  • uncertainties capturing domain-fit, causal-attribution, and assignment ambiguity risks
• No changes to .github/workflows/copilot-pr-merged-report.md, its lock file, or a grader script — per the blocked-design rule, only the study record is added.

Original prompt

[operational-value-study:paper-v1] copilot-pr-merged-report

Use the repository's .github/skills/operational-value-designer/SKILL.md to design
and verify one deterministic operational-value grader for github/gh-aw
workflow copilot-pr-merged-report. This is a fresh research run; do not copy another
workflow's metric or contract.

Requirements:

• Recover adoption-time intent and pre-adoption evidence independently.
• Use exactly one direct primary attainment metric in [0,1]. Keep diagnostics separate.
• Treat unavailable evidence as null, never zero. Make maturation explicit and stable.
• Support historical assignment reconstruction when case and event are null.
• If no direct operational metric is defensible, create only the study record below with designOutcome "blocked" and explain why. Never substitute activity, output volume, traces, or agent judgment.
• Change only .github/workflows/copilot-pr-merged-report.md, its generated lock file,
  .github/graders/copilot-pr-merged-report-operational-value.sh, and .github/graders/copilot-pr-merged-report-operational-value-study.json.
• Do not add generated historical reports to the pull request.

Write .github/graders/copilot-pr-merged-report-operational-value-study.json as JSON with this exact top-level shape:
{
"schemaVersion": 1,
"repository": "github/gh-aw",
"workflowId": "copilot-pr-merged-report",
"recordedAt": "ISO-8601 timestamp",
"recorder": "copilot-coding-agent",
"designOutcome": "accepted|rejected|blocked",
"rejectionReason": null,
"classification": {
"domain": "short research domain",
"subdomain": null,
"taskArchetype": "short label",
"interventionType": "short label",
"outcomeType": "short label",
"evidenceDirectness": "direct|proxy|activity",
"evidenceLocality": "same-repository|cross-repository|external",
"measurementLevel": "nominal|ordinal|interval|ratio",
"metricForm": "binary|proportion|rate|distance-to-target|index",
"assignmentDeterminism": "deterministic|bounded-ambiguity|ambiguous",
"intentExplicitness": "explicit|implicit|mixed",
"markdownSpecificity": "exact|bounded|open-ended",
"outcomeObservability": "immediate|delayed",
"causalClaim": "observational|comparative-not-causal"
},
"decisions": [{
"type": "intent|opportunity|assignment|evidence|maturation|metric|baseline|diagnostic",
"selected": "observable selected design",
"alternatives": ["observable rejected alternative"],
"rationale": "concise evidence-backed rationale, not hidden reasoning",
"evidenceReferences": ["commit, issue, PR, or file reference"],
"changedDuringReview": false
}],
"uncertainties": [{
"type": "measurement|assignment|evidence-availability|temporal|baseline|domain-fit|causal-attribution",
"level": "low|medium|high|unknown",
"description": "specific limitation",
"mitigation": null,
"evidenceReferences": []
}]
}

For blocked/rejected designs, rejectionReason must be a non-empty string. Record
observable contract choices and alternatives only; do not record chain-of-thought.

Validation for accepted designs:

1. .github/skills/operational-value-designer/scripts/verify-operational-value-evaluator.sh .github/graders/copilot-pr-merged-report-operational-value.sh
2. gh aw compile .github/workflows/copilot-pr-merged-report.md

Keep the pull request limited to this workflow. The local study runner will replay
history and archive reports after this task completes.