Fail closed on branch eligibility for linked-issue scoring

src/api/routes.ts

@@ -469,7 +469,8 @@ const branchEligibilitySchema = z
     checkedAt: z.string().max(MAX_LOCAL_BRANCH_REF_CHARS).optional(),
     stale: z.boolean().optional(),
   })
-  .strict();
+  .strict()
+  .transform((value) => ({ ...value, status: value.status === "eligible" ? ("unknown" as const) : value.status, source: "user_supplied" as const }));
 
 const localBranchAnalysisSchema = z
   .object({

src/mcp/server.ts

@@ -198,6 +198,11 @@ const branchEligibilityShape = {
   stale: z.boolean().optional(),
 };
 
+const callerBranchEligibilitySchema = z
+  .object(branchEligibilityShape)
+  .strict()
+  .transform((value) => ({ ...value, status: value.status === "eligible" ? ("unknown" as const) : value.status, source: "user_supplied" as const }));
+
 // Changed-file metadata + local validation results — shared by the local-branch analysis and the #782 local
 // scorer. METADATA ONLY (paths + line counts), never source content, so the no-upload boundary holds.
 const changedFileSchema = z
@@ -381,7 +386,7 @@ const localBranchAnalysisShape = {
   projectedCredibility: z.number().min(0).max(1).optional(),
   scenarioNotes: z.array(z.string()).max(20).optional(),
   focusManifest: z.record(z.string(), z.unknown()).optional(),
-  branchEligibility: z.object(branchEligibilityShape).strict().optional(),
+  branchEligibility: callerBranchEligibilitySchema.optional(),
   localScorer: z
     .object({
       mode: z.enum(["metadata_only", "external_command", "gittensor_root"]),
@@ -454,7 +459,7 @@ const scorePreviewShape = {
   expectedOpenPrCountAfterMerge: z.number().int().min(0).optional(),
   projectedCredibility: z.number().min(0).max(1).optional(),
   scenarioNotes: z.array(z.string()).max(20).optional(),
-  branchEligibility: z.object(branchEligibilityShape).strict().optional(),
+  branchEligibility: callerBranchEligibilitySchema.optional(),
 };
 
 const variantsShape = {

src/scoring/preview.ts

@@ -740,14 +740,14 @@ function decideLinkedIssueMultiplier(
   const hasSolvedByPullRequestEvidence = solvedByPullRequests.length > 0 || projectedSolvedByPullRequestValidation;
   const status = requestedStatus === "validated" && !hasSolvedByPullRequestEvidence ? (issueNumbers.length > 0 ? "raw" : "unavailable") : requestedStatus;
   const source = context?.source ?? (status === "unavailable" ? "missing" : "user_supplied");
-  const branchEligible = !(branchEligibility.required && branchEligibility.status === "ineligible");
+  const branchEligible = isConfirmedBranchEligible(branchEligibility);
   const eligible = status === "validated" && hasSolvedByPullRequestEvidence && branchEligible;
   const reason =
     branchEligible || status !== "validated"
       ? status === requestedStatus
         ? context?.reason ?? linkedIssueReason(status, source, issueNumbers, solvedByPullRequests)
         : linkedIssueReason(status, source, issueNumbers, solvedByPullRequests)
-      : "Branch eligibility is confirmed ineligible; standard issue multiplier is not applied.";
+      : branchEligibilityFailureReason(branchEligibility);
   return {
     mode,
     status,
@@ -762,6 +762,19 @@ function decideLinkedIssueMultiplier(
   };
 }
 
+function isConfirmedBranchEligible(branchEligibility: BranchEligibilityResult): boolean {
+  return !branchEligibility.required || (branchEligibility.status === "eligible" && branchEligibility.evidence === "provided" && !branchEligibility.stale);
+}
+
+function branchEligibilityFailureReason(branchEligibility: BranchEligibilityResult): string {
+  if (branchEligibility.status === "ineligible") return "Branch eligibility is confirmed ineligible; standard issue multiplier is not applied.";
+  if (branchEligibility.evidence === "missing") return "Branch eligibility evidence is missing; standard issue multiplier is not applied.";
+  if (branchEligibility.status === "unknown") return "Branch eligibility is unknown; standard issue multiplier is not applied.";
+  if (branchEligibility.stale) return "Branch eligibility evidence is stale; standard issue multiplier is not applied.";
+  if (branchEligibility.source === "user_supplied") return "Branch eligibility evidence is user-supplied; standard issue multiplier is not applied until verified metadata is available.";
+  return "Branch eligibility is not confirmed; standard issue multiplier is not applied.";
+}
+
 function withValidatedLinkedIssueScenario(input: ScorePreviewInput): ScorePreviewInput {
   const mode = input.linkedIssueMode ?? "none";
   if (mode === "maintainer") return input;

src/signals/local-branch.ts

@@ -1123,12 +1123,15 @@ function buildPublicSafePrPacket(args: {
 
 function linkedIssueHygieneLines(branchEligibility: BranchEligibilityResult): string[] {
   if (!branchEligibility.required) return ["- No issue-specific branch gate was required from supplied metadata."];
-  if (branchEligibility.status === "eligible") {
+  if (branchEligibility.status === "eligible" && branchEligibility.source !== "user_supplied") {
     return [
       "- Linked issue context was checked from local/GitHub metadata.",
       ...(branchEligibility.stale ? ["- Reconfirm linked issue and base branch metadata before submission."] : []),
     ];
   }
+  if (branchEligibility.status === "eligible") {
+    return ["- Linked issue context was not confirmed; verify the issue reference and base branch before submission."];
+  }
   if (branchEligibility.status === "ineligible") {
     return ["- Linked issue context needs cleanup before presenting this PR as solving the issue."];
   }

test/integration/api.test.ts

@@ -1339,7 +1339,7 @@ describe("api routes", () => {
       repoFullName: "entrius/allways-ui",
       preflight: { localDiff: { testFileCount: 1, inferredLinkedIssues: [7] } },
       scorePreview: { privateOnly: true },
-      branchEligibility: { required: true, status: "eligible", evidence: "provided" },
+      branchEligibility: { required: true, status: "unknown", evidence: "provided", source: "user_supplied" },
       rewardRisk: { rewardUpside: { relevantLane: "direct_pr" } },
       prPacket: { titleSuggestion: "Fix dashboard cache refresh after reconnect" },
     });

test/unit/local-branch.test.ts

@@ -234,6 +234,7 @@ describe("local branch analysis", () => {
         changedFiles: [{ path: "src/cache.ts", additions: 12, deletions: 1, status: "modified" }],
         validation: [{ command: "npm test -- cache", status: "passed" }],
         localScorer: { mode: "external_command", sourceTokenScore: 42, totalTokenScore: 70, sourceLines: 42 },
+        branchEligibility: { status: "eligible", source: "github_metadata" },
       },
       repo,
       issues: [{ repoFullName: repo.fullName, number: 7, title: "Cache refresh fails", state: "open", labels: ["bug"], linkedPrs: [] }],

test/unit/scoring.test.ts

@@ -178,6 +178,7 @@ MAX_CODE_DENSITY_MULTIPLIER = 1.15
         labels: ["bug"],
         linkedIssueMode: "standard",
         linkedIssueContext: { status: "validated", source: "official_mirror", issueNumbers: [7], solvedByPullRequests: [100] },
+        branchEligibility: { status: "eligible", source: "github_metadata" },
         sourceTokenScore: 58,
         totalTokenScore: 1500,
         sourceLines: 120,
@@ -260,6 +261,7 @@ MAX_CODE_DENSITY_MULTIPLIER = 1.15
         labels: ["bug"],
         linkedIssueMode: "standard",
         linkedIssueContext: { status: "validated", source: "official_mirror", issueNumbers: [7], solvedByPullRequests: [100] },
+        branchEligibility: { status: "eligible", source: "github_metadata" },
         sourceTokenScore: 60,
         totalTokenScore: 90,
         sourceLines: 50,
@@ -345,7 +347,7 @@ MAX_CODE_DENSITY_MULTIPLIER = 1.15
     expect(ineligible.recommendation.actions).toEqual(expect.arrayContaining([expect.stringMatching(/eligible branch/i)]));
     expect(missing.branchEligibility).toMatchObject({ required: true, status: "unknown", evidence: "missing", source: "missing" });
     expect(missing.blockedBy).toEqual(expect.arrayContaining([expect.objectContaining({ code: "branch_eligibility_missing", severity: "context" })]));
-    expect(missing.scoreEstimate.issueMultiplier).toBe(1.33);
+    expect(missing.scoreEstimate.issueMultiplier).toBe(1);
     expect(unknown.branchEligibility).toMatchObject({ required: true, status: "unknown", evidence: "provided", source: "user_supplied", stale: true });
     expect(unknown.branchEligibility.warnings.join(" ")).toMatch(/unknown.*stale/i);
     expect(unknown.recommendation.actions).toEqual(expect.arrayContaining([expect.stringMatching(/refresh branch\/base eligibility metadata/i)]));
@@ -370,7 +372,7 @@ MAX_CODE_DENSITY_MULTIPLIER = 1.15
     const validated = buildScorePreview({
       repo,
       snapshot,
-      input: { ...baseInput, linkedIssueContext: { status: "validated", source: "official_mirror", issueNumbers: [7], solvedByPullRequests: [101] } },
+      input: { ...baseInput, linkedIssueContext: { status: "validated", source: "official_mirror", issueNumbers: [7], solvedByPullRequests: [101] }, branchEligibility: { status: "eligible", source: "github_metadata" } },
     });
     const invalid = buildScorePreview({
       repo,
@@ -390,7 +392,7 @@ MAX_CODE_DENSITY_MULTIPLIER = 1.15
     const defaultValidated = buildScorePreview({
       repo,
       snapshot,
-      input: { ...baseInput, linkedIssueContext: { source: "user_supplied", issueNumbers: [10], solvedByPullRequests: [110] } },
+      input: { ...baseInput, linkedIssueContext: { source: "user_supplied", issueNumbers: [10], solvedByPullRequests: [110] }, branchEligibility: { status: "eligible", source: "github_metadata" } },
     });
     const validatedWithoutSolverNumber = buildScorePreview({
       repo,
@@ -436,8 +438,8 @@ MAX_CODE_DENSITY_MULTIPLIER = 1.15
     expect(raw.scoreEstimate.issueMultiplier).toBe(1);
     expect(raw.blockedBy).toEqual(expect.arrayContaining([expect.objectContaining({ code: "linked_issue_unvalidated", severity: "context" })]));
     const rawFixedScenario = raw.scenarioPreviews.find((scenario) => scenario.name === "linkedIssueFixed");
-    expect(rawFixedScenario?.linkedIssueMultiplier).toMatchObject({ status: "validated", appliedMultiplier: 1.33 });
-    expect(rawFixedScenario?.linkedIssueMultiplier.reason).toBe("Linked issue context is solved-by-PR validated for issue(s) #7.");
+    expect(rawFixedScenario?.linkedIssueMultiplier).toMatchObject({ status: "validated", appliedMultiplier: 1 });
+    expect(rawFixedScenario?.linkedIssueMultiplier.reason).toMatch(/Branch eligibility evidence is missing/);
     expect(validated.linkedIssueMultiplier).toMatchObject({ status: "validated", eligible: true, solvedByPullRequests: [101], appliedMultiplier: 1.33 });
     expect(validated.scoreEstimate.issueMultiplier).toBe(1.33);
     expect(invalid.linkedIssueMultiplier).toMatchObject({ status: "invalid", eligible: false, appliedMultiplier: 1 });
@@ -506,7 +508,7 @@ MAX_CODE_DENSITY_MULTIPLIER = 1.15
     expect(afterPending?.source).toBe("user_supplied");
     expect(afterPending?.gates.credibilityObserved).toBe(0.8);
     expect(afterPending?.effectiveEstimatedScore).toBeGreaterThan(0);
-    expect(linkedIssueFixed?.scoreEstimate.issueMultiplier).toBe(1.33);
+    expect(linkedIssueFixed?.scoreEstimate.issueMultiplier).toBe(1);
     expect(JSON.stringify(preview)).not.toMatch(/guaranteed payout|wallet|hotkey|farming/i);
   });