diff --git a/src/review/review-effort.ts b/src/review/review-effort.ts
new file mode 100644
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+++ b/src/review/review-effort.ts
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+// Deterministic per-PR review-effort estimator (#2068, core of #1955). Pure: given the changed files and their
+// patches, weight each file's added-line count by its category, add a fixed per-file overhead, and map the total
+// to a 1-5 complexity band plus a rounded minutes estimate. No AI, no IO — identical input always yields the same
+// estimate. Consumed by the ROI and unified-comment surfaces; standalone and fully unit-testable.
+
+import { addedLineCount } from "./review-diff";
+import { classifyChangedFile, type ChangedFileCategory } from "../signals/path-matchers";
+
+export type ReviewEffortFile = { path: string; patch?: string | undefined };
+
+export type ReviewEffort = {
+  /** Complexity band from 1 (trivial) to 5 (heavy). */
+  band: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5;
+  /** Rough minutes a human reviewer should budget. */
+  minutes: number;
+};
+
+// Per-added-line review weight by file category. Genuine source costs the most to review; machine-produced or
+// imported content (minified/generated/vendored/lockfiles) the least; docs/config/tests sit in between. A single
+// auditable table rather than a branch chain, so the weighting is easy to read and adjust.
+const CATEGORY_WEIGHT: Record<ChangedFileCategory, number> = {
+  minified: 0.05,
+  generated: 0.05,
+  vendored: 0.05,
+  lockfile: 0.1,
+  dependency_manifest: 0.4,
+  config: 0.4,
+  docs: 0.25,
+  test: 0.5,
+  source: 1,
+  other: 0.5,
+};
+
+// A fixed per-file review-overhead: each touched file carries a context-switch cost on top of its lines.
+const PER_FILE_OVERHEAD = 3;
+// Upper effort bound of bands 1-4; anything larger is band 5. Deliberate, documented cut points — this is a
+// triage aid, not a precise measurement.
+const BAND_MAX = [10, 40, 120, 300];
+// Minutes are half the weighted effort, floored at 1 so any non-empty review reads as at least a minute.
+const MINUTES_PER_EFFORT = 0.5;
+
+function bandForEffort(effort: number): 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 {
+  for (let i = 0; i < BAND_MAX.length; i++) {
+    if (effort <= BAND_MAX[i]!) return (i + 1) as 1 | 2 | 3 | 4;
+  }
+  return 5;
+}
+
+/** Estimate the review effort of a change set. Pure and deterministic. */
+export function estimateReviewEffort(files: ReviewEffortFile[]): ReviewEffort {
+  let weighted = 0;
+  for (const file of files) {
+    weighted += addedLineCount(file.patch) * CATEGORY_WEIGHT[classifyChangedFile(file.path)];
+  }
+  const effort = weighted + files.length * PER_FILE_OVERHEAD;
+  return { band: bandForEffort(effort), minutes: Math.max(1, Math.round(effort * MINUTES_PER_EFFORT)) };
+}
diff --git a/test/unit/review-effort.test.ts b/test/unit/review-effort.test.ts
new file mode 100644
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+++ b/test/unit/review-effort.test.ts
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+import { describe, expect, it } from "vitest";
+import { estimateReviewEffort, type ReviewEffortFile } from "../../src/review/review-effort";
+
+// A patch with exactly `added` added lines (each `+`), so a test can dial the effort precisely.
+function srcPatch(added: number): string {
+  return ["@@ -0,0 +1," + added + " @@", ...Array.from({ length: added }, (_, i) => `+const x${i} = ${i};`)].join("\n");
+}
+
+function file(path: string, added: number): ReviewEffortFile {
+  return { path, patch: srcPatch(added) };
+}
+
+describe("estimateReviewEffort", () => {
+  it("returns band 1 and a floored minute for an empty change set", () => {
+    expect(estimateReviewEffort([])).toEqual({ band: 1, minutes: 1 });
+  });
+
+  it("counts a file with no patch as zero added lines but still charges per-file overhead", () => {
+    // one file, no patch: weighted 0 + 1*3 = effort 3 -> band 1, minutes round(1.5) = 2
+    expect(estimateReviewEffort([{ path: "src/a.ts" }])).toEqual({ band: 1, minutes: 2 });
+  });
+
+  it("maps rising source-line volume across every band", () => {
+    expect(estimateReviewEffort([file("src/a.ts", 2)]).band).toBe(1); // effort 5
+    expect(estimateReviewEffort([file("src/a.ts", 20)]).band).toBe(2); // effort 23
+    expect(estimateReviewEffort([file("src/a.ts", 60)]).band).toBe(3); // effort 63
+    expect(estimateReviewEffort([file("src/a.ts", 200)]).band).toBe(4); // effort 203
+    expect(estimateReviewEffort([file("src/a.ts", 400)]).band).toBe(5); // effort 403
+  });
+
+  it("derives minutes as half the weighted effort", () => {
+    // 400 source lines -> weighted 400 + 3 = 403 -> round(201.5) = 202
+    expect(estimateReviewEffort([file("src/a.ts", 400)]).minutes).toBe(202);
+  });
+
+  it("weights non-source categories below source, so the same line count reviews as less effort", () => {
+    const source = estimateReviewEffort([file("src/a.ts", 100)]); // 100 + 3 = 103 -> band 3
+    const docs = estimateReviewEffort([file("docs/guide.md", 100)]); // 25 + 3 = 28 -> band 2
+    const lockfile = estimateReviewEffort([file("package-lock.json", 100)]); // 10 + 3 = 13 -> band 2
+    expect(source.band).toBe(3);
+    expect(docs.band).toBe(2);
+    expect(lockfile.band).toBe(2);
+    expect(docs.minutes).toBeLessThan(source.minutes);
+    expect(lockfile.minutes).toBeLessThan(docs.minutes);
+  });
+
+  it("sums weighted effort across multiple files", () => {
+    const effort = estimateReviewEffort([file("src/a.ts", 10), file("src/b.ts", 10)]); // (10+10) + 2*3 = 26 -> band 2
+    expect(effort.band).toBe(2);
+    expect(effort.minutes).toBe(13);
+  });
+});